专访韩国中国问题专家郑载兴：若李在明当选或改善中韩关系

Group 1 - The upcoming South Korean presidential election is triggered by the impeachment of former President Yoon Suk-yeol, leading to an early election [1] - The current leading candidate, Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party, has a support rate of 49.2%, significantly ahead of his competitors [1] - Political analysts suggest that Lee's victory is almost certain, with the focus now on whether he can achieve a landslide win [1][3] Group 2 - The political landscape in South Korea is highly polarized, with significant divisions between conservative and progressive factions [2][6] - If elected, Lee Jae-myung is expected to prioritize domestic issues, including addressing the Yoon Suk-yeol crisis and focusing on economic improvement [4][5] - Lee's proposed constitutional reforms, such as changing the presidential term to four years with the possibility of re-election, may face challenges in implementation [5] Group 3 - Analysts criticize Yoon Suk-yeol's foreign policy as a strategic error, leading to increased domestic conflict and a "new cold war" environment [6][7] - Lee Jae-myung aims to adopt a balanced diplomatic approach, improving relations with neighboring countries like China and Russia while maintaining the U.S. alliance [9][12] - The potential for four-party cooperation among China, Russia, North Korea, and South Korea is highlighted, but significant challenges remain [11][12] Group 4 - Lee's intention to improve South Korea's relations with China and Russia is met with skepticism due to existing domestic and international pressures [12][13] - The historical context of U.S. influence in South Korea complicates Lee's efforts to shift diplomatic focus [14] - Strengthening people-to-people exchanges and cooperation in various sectors is suggested as a way to improve bilateral relations with China [15]