去库趋势延续 PX供需格局逐步改善

Supply Side - PX inventory is experiencing a destocking trend entering 2025, particularly after May, driven by limited supply increments and unexpected demand performance, leading to a significant recovery in PX valuation [1] - This year is not a major maintenance year for PX, with high operating rates in Q1 and limited maintenance plans in Q2, resulting in unexpected supply losses in May due to unplanned reductions at certain facilities [1] - Domestic PX production remains stable, with over half of the capacity being integrated refining and chemical facilities launched after 2019, while imports are still 20% reliant on regions like South Korea and Japan, which lack new capacity and have lower operational stability [1] Demand Side - Demand for PX has fluctuated between reality and expectations, with PTA processing fees compressed to low levels after the Spring Festival, leading to a delay in PX destocking [2] - The escalation of US-China trade tensions initially weakened demand expectations, causing PX prices to drop to yearly lows, but a subsequent easing of tensions and strong export orders improved demand and operational rates in the downstream [2] - As of May, the recovery in PTA operating rates has continued the PX destocking trend, with improved buying intentions from PTA factories leading to a rapid recovery in PX prices [2] Future Outlook - In the short term, the recovery in PTA operating rates is expected to continue the PX destocking trend, with improved PX production profits and delayed maintenance in domestic and overseas facilities indicating that PX valuations are entering a reasonable range [3] - Long-term projections suggest that with only 3 million tons of new PX capacity expected from Yulong Petrochemical, while PTA has significant upcoming capacity additions, the domestic PX supply gap is likely to widen [3] - Although tariffs may limit terminal demand growth compared to PTA capacity growth, restricted operating levels in other Asian regions are expected to constrain import increases, indicating further improvement potential in the long-term supply-demand landscape for PX [3]