需求难有明显改善 豆一缺乏上涨驱动力

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese market is shifting towards increasing imports of Brazilian soybeans due to the loss of price advantage for U.S. soybeans caused by the "reciprocal tariff" policy, leading to a tightening of domestic soybean supply and a rise in futures prices [1][2]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Since April, the supply of domestic soybeans has tightened significantly, with the proportion of remaining stocks in Heilongjiang dropping to 3%, a decrease of 7 percentage points compared to the previous year [2][3]. - The auction of state reserves has seen a 100% transaction rate, with some lots trading at a premium, which has boosted market sentiment despite a decline in auction volumes [3]. - The southern soybean production areas have also shown rapid sales progress, with Anhui's remaining stocks at 4%, down 31 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a strong price support mentality among traders [2]. Group 2: Demand Trends - The downstream market is entering a traditional off-season, with food demand slowing as temperatures rise, leading to limited new demand for soybean products [4]. - Despite a significant increase in domestic soybean crushing demand, with a 93% year-on-year rise in consumption from January to April 2025, the influx of imported soybeans is expected to normalize the market supply [4]. - The overall market is anticipated to maintain a range-bound trading pattern due to limited demand improvement, despite strong support from the supply side [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming end of the new season soybean planting is expected to shift the focus back to grain sales, potentially increasing market activity as farmers may be more willing to sell due to rising temperatures affecting storage [4]. - Key factors to monitor include the government's soybean release policies and weather conditions during the new season's growth period, which could impact future supply and pricing dynamics [4].