棉花 不确定因素增多

Core Viewpoint - Recent rebound in cotton prices is primarily influenced by substantial progress in high-level economic talks between China and the U.S., although macroeconomic uncertainties and favorable weather conditions for the new crop year may limit the extent of price increases [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Factors - The high-level economic talks on May 10-11 resulted in significant tariff reductions, boosting market sentiment and leading to a rebound in cotton prices [1] - G7 finance ministers discussed imposing tariffs on small packages from China, with China's apparel exports to G7 countries (excluding the U.S.) accounting for 19.2% of total exports, which could significantly impact cotton demand [1][2] Group 2: Market Demand - Downstream enterprises reported a surge in shipments to the U.S. following the tariff reductions, but the overall demand remains weak due to several factors, including previous stockpiling and the cancellation of the small package tax exemption [2] - The 24% tariff suspension is temporary (90 days), creating uncertainty in global trade dynamics, which makes enterprises cautious about new orders [2] Group 3: Production Outlook - New cotton planting is nearly complete, with initial weather conditions being favorable, leading to optimistic expectations for increased production in Xinjiang [2] - The cotton production in Xinjiang is projected to reach a ten-year high, which may exert strong upward pressure on prices and limit the current rebound [2][3]