Group 1: Market Overview - Recent significant decline in tin prices, with macroeconomic factors indicating a slowdown in US economic growth and prolonged maintenance of current interest rates by the Federal Reserve [1] - Domestic policies promoting equipment upgrades and old-for-new exchanges are boosting demand for non-ferrous metals in manufacturing and consumption sectors [1] Group 2: Supply and Import Dynamics - Myanmar accounts for approximately 30.38% of China's tin ore imports, with imported tin ore constituting 47% of domestic supply [1] - In April 2025, China's tin ore imports were 0.98 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 18.48% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.22% [1] - Cumulative tin ore imports from January to April 2025 totaled 3.67 million tons, a significant year-on-year decline of 47.98% [1] - The ban on tin mining in Myanmar since August 2023 has led to persistently low import volumes, exacerbated by unstable import profitability and regional conflicts [1] Group 3: Processing and Refining Impact - Tight supply of tin ore has resulted in a 40% drop in processing fees, with Yunnan's tin concentrate processing fees falling from 17,000 yuan/ton to 12,000 yuan/ton [1] - Processing fees are now near the cost line for some enterprises, leading to production cuts [1] - As of May 23, 2025, the operating rate of tin refining plants in Yunnan and Jiangxi was 56.44%, a decrease of 0.66 percentage points from the previous week [2] Group 4: Demand and Industry Trends - Tin solder demand accounts for 68% of the market, with the semiconductor sector representing 80% of tin solder demand [2] - In April 2025, domestic tin solder enterprises had an operating rate of 76.7%, a slight increase of 0.9 percentage points from March but below market expectations [2] - Global semiconductor sales increased by 18.8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with an expected annual growth of 11%, potentially driving global tin demand up by 4.4% [2] Group 5: Inventory and Price Outlook - Domestic tin market is entering a destocking phase, with Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory at 8,445 tons, a decrease of 28 tons from the previous week [3] - LME tin inventory also decreased by 70 tons to 2,665 tons [3] - Despite seasonal demand weakness, semiconductor industry growth provides some support for the tin market [3] - Current prices are approaching tariff and cost lows, with potential for strategic buying below 258,000 yuan/ton, targeting mid-term and long-term prices of 290,000 yuan/ton and 330,000 yuan/ton respectively [3]
沪锡 可逢低布局多单
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2025-06-03 01:17