中泰证券：看好IP行业投资价值 三大方向值得关注

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongtai Securities highlights the investment value in the IP industry, focusing on the commercialization of major IPs and identifying three key areas of interest: IP2C model leaders with strong operational and channel capabilities, content creators with strong creative abilities, and IP operators with quality IP and B2B customer resources [1] Group 1: Overview of the IP Licensing Industry - The IP licensing industry consists of two types of IPs, two main entities, and various models, including content IP and character IP, with significant revenue generated from merchandise licensing, particularly toys [1] - The Chinese market for licensed products is projected to reach a retail total of 155.09 billion yuan in 2024, indicating substantial potential for back-end development, as the current conversion rate of domestic content IP is relatively low [1] - Per capita spending on IP products in China is less than one-fourth of that in Japan and one-fifth of that in the United States, with back-end development revenue accounting for about 10% of the industry chain, significantly lower than the approximately 70% seen in the US and Japan [1] Group 2: Drivers of Development - The transition to a post-$10,000 GDP era is leading to a shift from survival-based consumption to development-oriented and enjoyment-based consumption [2] - Changes in population and social structure, particularly among Generation Z and Millennials, are creating new pressures and opportunities [2] - The "Japan Valley" phenomenon is enhancing licensing and sales channels domestically, improving the supply chain for IP derivative products [2] - Innovations in content and channel development are paving the way for cultural exports to enter a golden era [2] Group 3: Commercialization of IP - The monetization of IP relies on upfront licensing fees that can leverage multiple revenue streams downstream, with licensing fees typically ranging from 3% to 10% of sales for physical products [3] - Derivative product sales represent the primary revenue source in the downstream operation of IP, with significant profit margins available for IP operators and distributors [3] - The full value of IP is linked to user lifecycle value models, where ARPPU is influenced by emotional value, social currency, emotional companionship, and collectible value [3] Group 4: Core Competencies of IP Licensing Players - The potential of IP is assessed through the quantity and proprietary share of the IP matrix, with a larger and more exclusive IP portfolio leading to a more stable business model and stronger industry influence [4] - Operational capabilities are critical, with effective supply chain management and user engagement enhancing emotional connections and product quality [4] - Channel capabilities are essential for performance elasticity, with direct sales providing strong control and distribution models expanding market reach [4]