印度低迷、中东疲软，新兴手机市场集体“失速”

Core Insights - The global smartphone market outlook has significantly declined, with a projected year-on-year growth of only 0.6% in 2025, reaching 1.24 billion units, down from an earlier forecast of 2.3% growth [2] - Emerging markets, particularly India, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East, have experienced a slowdown in smartphone shipments, attributed to inventory adjustments, the end of post-pandemic replacement cycles, rising product costs, and macroeconomic uncertainties [3][4][6] - The high-end smartphone segment continues to grow, with demand for devices priced over $800 reaching new highs, indicating a bifurcated market structure where premium products are less affected by economic downturns [7][8] Market Performance - In Q1 2025, India saw an 8% decline in smartphone shipments, totaling 32.4 million units, while Southeast Asia experienced a 3% drop, marking its first decline since 2024 [4] - The Middle East also faced a 4% decrease in shipments, totaling 11.7 million units [4] - The overall smartphone market is expected to remain flat, with a slight increase of 0.1% globally, while emerging markets are projected to be the largest growth drivers until 2029 [11] Competitive Landscape - Apple has gained significant market share in emerging markets, achieving a 19% market share in Q1 2025, driven by strong sales of the iPhone 16 series [10] - The smartphone market is increasingly polarized, with high-end consumers seeking brand and performance upgrades, while budget-conscious consumers focus on value [7][8] - Companies are adapting to external uncertainties, such as changing tariff policies, by diversifying channels and maintaining flexible product strategies [6][11] Future Trends - The shift towards experience-driven consumption in emerging markets is becoming a key competitive factor, with brands introducing subscription services to meet diverse consumer needs [12] - Long-term growth opportunities for Chinese brands in global markets will depend on effective risk management and compliance with local regulations [13][15] - The evolving market dynamics necessitate a balance between local policy requirements and the need for foreign investment, highlighting the importance of strategic partnerships [15]