高利率环境下美国劳动力市场保持韧性的原因及后续展望

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resilience of the U.S. labor market despite aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve post-pandemic, characterized by a steepening of the Phillips and Beveridge curves [1][2][4][5]. - The U.S. labor market has shown robust growth with unemployment rates remaining historically low, even as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates from 0-0.25% to 5.25%-5.5% over a span of 11 hikes [3][4]. - The average monthly non-farm employment from March 2022 to March 2025 is 230,400, significantly higher than the pre-pandemic average of 178,000 [3]. Group 2 - The Phillips curve has become more vertical, indicating that despite a drop in inflation from 7.0% to 2.1%, the unemployment rate only increased from 3.6% to 4.1%, demonstrating the labor market's resilience [4]. - The Beveridge curve has steepened, showing that even with a decrease in job vacancy rates from 7.4% to 4.4%, the unemployment rate only rose slightly, further indicating labor market strength [5]. - The labor market is characterized by a significant "demand exceeding supply" situation, with a labor shortage exacerbated by slow recovery in labor supply post-pandemic [6]. Group 3 - Strong public and private investments, driven by the Biden administration's "Invest in America" agenda, have significantly boosted labor demand, with total spending around $1.2 trillion since late 2021 [7]. - Private sector investments have exceeded $1 trillion, particularly in manufacturing and non-residential construction, contributing to job growth despite high interest rates [7][8]. - The accumulation of "excess savings" and rising asset prices have supported consumer spending, which in turn has driven labor demand, creating a positive feedback loop in the economy [12][13]. Group 4 - The influx of low-cost immigrant labor has made the labor market both "scarce and relatively cheap," which has stimulated demand and mitigated the impact of high interest rates on business costs [14][15]. - The labor market's dynamics can explain the verticalization of the Phillips curve and the steepening of the Beveridge curve, as high demand persists even with rising interest rates [16]. - The neutral interest rate has risen post-pandemic, leading to an underestimation of the restrictive nature of the Federal Reserve's policy rates, which has contributed to the labor market's resilience [17][18]. Group 5 - In the short term, the labor market is expected to remain stable, with a gradual decrease in hiring rates but low levels of layoffs, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation [20][21]. - In the medium to long term, uncertainties stemming from potential policy changes under the Trump administration could impact the labor market, particularly regarding tariffs and federal spending cuts [22].