国盛证券：保健品呈现长期增长潜力 建议优选代工及优质品牌商

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese health supplement industry is expected to experience long-term growth potential driven by increased consumer spending and the aging population, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.8%-8.8% from 2024 to 2035 [1] Group 1: Historical Review - The health supplement market in China began in the 1980s, characterized by a focus on creating blockbuster products and aggressive marketing, which led to potential risks in the industry [1] - The early 2000s saw rapid growth with the entry of international brands and the emergence of domestic brands, but safety incidents post-2013 led to increased regulatory scrutiny [1] - Since 2020, the industry has entered a new growth cycle driven by health trends and e-commerce, although competition has intensified [1] Group 2: Channels - The three main channels for health supplements in China are direct sales, pharmacies, and e-commerce, with e-commerce accounting for 56% of the market share in 2023 [2] - E-commerce is expected to continue being the primary growth driver, while the pharmacy channel stabilizes and direct sales may face downward pressure [2] - Douyin (TikTok) is projected to become the largest e-commerce channel for health supplements by August 2024, with growth rates surpassing traditional e-commerce [2] Group 3: Products - Health supplements can be categorized into mature markets and new consumer markets, with the former steadily expanding and the latter requiring faster product iteration and supply chain responsiveness [3] - The industry is witnessing two main trends: the foodification of products and the development of strong functional products, catering to both older and younger demographics [3] - There is a K-shaped price differentiation in health supplements, where high-functionality premium products are expected to see significant growth [3] Group 4: Industry Chain - The penetration rate of contract manufacturing in the domestic market exceeds 65%, with both brand owners and manufacturers demonstrating high profitability [4] - Brand owners face intense competition with low market concentration, as the top 10 e-commerce platforms hold only 16.7% market share, making e-commerce operational capability a key competitive advantage [4] - Contract manufacturers are achieving high profitability even with low fees, and leading firms are enhancing their product development, supply chain management, and customer service capabilities, leading to increased concentration in the industry [4]