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走向通胀经济---日本正在发生的“巨变”
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-06-03 03:38

Core Viewpoint - Japan is undergoing an unprecedented structural transformation that is expected to reshape its economic landscape and present significant opportunities for investors [1] Group 1: Structural Transformation - Japan is experiencing a series of structural changes, including a shift towards an inflationary economy, reduced reliance on exchange rates, and accelerated corporate reforms, creating opportunities for investors to reassess the Japanese stock market [1][2] - The retirement of the baby boomer generation is leading to a structural labor shortage, driving Japan towards sustainable inflation [5][12] - The expected core CPI in Japan is projected to reach 1.9% in FY2025 and 2.1% in FY2026, indicating a healthy and sustainable inflation pattern [5] Group 2: Exchange Rate Dependency - The end of excessive yen depreciation is expected to improve trade conditions and enhance Return on Equity (ROE) [1][8] - Japanese companies are accelerating the relocation of production bases overseas and focusing on exporting high-quality products, which makes prices less sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations [8] Group 3: Corporate Reforms - The transition to an inflationary economy is acting as a catalyst for corporate reforms, with companies no longer able to justify hoarding cash that is depreciating [9][12] - Structural labor shortages are creating a demand for continuous wage increases, prompting companies to optimize pricing strategies and improve product and service quality [12] - The Tokyo Stock Exchange's regulatory measures are encouraging companies to be more proactive in stock buybacks, with buybacks increasing even amid weak earnings guidance [12][15] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Corporate reforms present three major themes for investors: 1. The separation of parent-subsidiary listings is accelerating, with returns of subsidiaries relative to parents increasing since 2024 [15] 2. Companies reducing strategic holdings tend to engage in more stock buybacks, indicating that such reductions can enhance capital efficiency [15] 3. The inflationary environment is expanding opportunities in real estate, particularly for companies holding non-core properties [15] Group 5: Political Risks - The upcoming Senate elections on July 20 pose a short-term risk, as historical data shows that markets tend to be cautious before elections and rebound afterward [16][17] - All major opposition parties plan to include consumption tax cuts in their election manifestos, which could increase the risk of rising interest rates [16]