国信证券港股6月投资策略：IPO火热给港股投资带来更多选择

Group 1: US Market Insights - The core inflation in the US is expected to rise rapidly to 3.8% in Q3, primarily driven by tariffs increasing commodity prices, which suggests that current market expectations of 3.2-3.3% are overly conservative [2] - The anticipated rise in inflation is likely to lead to significant volatility in both the US stock and bond markets, prompting investors to prepare for uncertainty [2] Group 2: A-Share Market Dynamics - A-share market has shifted from sentiment-driven to performance-driven logic, with analysts revising earnings forecasts for various indices, particularly downgrading the Sci-Tech 50 while upgrading sectors like dividends, CSI 500, Shenzhen Component, and CSI 1000 [3] - The correlation between performance, low valuations, and stock prices indicates a transition in the A-share market towards earnings-driven investment strategies [3] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market is supported by continuous earnings upgrades, increasing southbound capital inflows, and a weakening US dollar index, which are all positive indicators for long-term strength [4] - The current recommendation for the Hong Kong market is to hold positions, with no further accumulation above 22,500 points [4] Group 4: Sector Recommendations - In the cloud computing sector, leading companies Tencent and Alibaba have shown strong performance in Q1, with competitive valuations and high liquidity [5] - The new consumption sector is characterized by a large young fan base and strong global expansion potential, while the pharmaceutical sector has shown significant earnings upgrades [5] - Dividend stocks, including operators, banks, and public utilities, are seen as stable performers that can effectively counter uncertainty [5] - The IPO market in Hong Kong has been impressive, with new stocks exceeding 30 billion market capitalization showing a median increase of 128% this year, suggesting opportunities in this area [5] - A focus on stocks with upgraded earnings forecasts is recommended, as the performance of the Hong Kong market is closely tied to earnings strength [5]