螺纹钢、热卷、铁矿石：二季度或震荡偏弱，建议空单持有

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils have remained stable or slightly declined during the holiday period, with weak transaction volumes reported in Shanghai and Hangzhou [1] - The U.S. plans to increase steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% starting June 4, alongside heightened export restrictions to China, leading to increased market uncertainty and risk aversion [1] - The traditional demand peak for construction steel will end in June, with weakening real estate investment and reports of corporate bond defaults, resulting in poor demand expectations [1] Group 2 - The crude steel production reduction policy has not yet been implemented, and long-process steel mills are still profitable, leading to slow production cuts and concerns about accumulating supply pressure during the off-season [1] - The supply of raw materials is ample, with risks of price declines for coal, coke, and iron ore, potentially lowering steelmaking costs [1] - The forecast for rebar prices in the second quarter is a downward trend, with cautious investors advised to hold sell positions on out-of-the-money call options and to short the 10 contract [1] Group 3 - The U.S. manufacturing PMI fell unexpectedly in May, indicating external demand pressures affecting manufacturing and indirect exports of sheet metal, compounded by insufficient domestic demand [1] - The crude steel production reduction policy remains unimplemented, and slow production cuts from steel mills, along with ample raw material supply, are expected to drag down steel prices [1] - The forecast for hot-rolled coil prices in the second quarter is also weak, with continued short positions on the 10 contract recommended [1] Group 4 - The supply-demand imbalance for imported iron ore is not prominent, with decreasing inventories at steel mills and ports [1] - However, uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies and ongoing external demand pressures, coupled with insufficient domestic demand, lead to poor expectations for steel demand [1] - In June, there may be increased shipping demands from FMG and BHP due to fiscal year-end, while Vale's shipments may shift seasonally, potentially leading to a looser supply-demand situation for imported iron ore [1] Group 5 - Cautious investors are advised to hold a 9-1 long-short combination on iron ore, while aggressive investors may consider shorting the I2601 contract [1] - Risks include potential over-implementation of domestic counter-cyclical adjustment policies and breakthroughs in U.S.-China trade negotiations [1]