2026年铜价可能有更多上行空间

Core Viewpoint - The copper market outlook for the second half of 2025 is characterized by a paradox of sufficient supply but potential localized shortages due to the form and location of the copper available [3][4]. Supply Dynamics - Global mine copper production is expected to increase by approximately 2.3% in 2025, exceeding 23.5 million tons, driven by projects like Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia [1]. - Refined copper production is projected to jump nearly 3% this year as smelters expand capacity, particularly in China [1]. - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecasts a surplus of 289,000 tons in 2025, more than double last year's surplus, indicating a third consecutive year of supply exceeding demand [1]. Refining Challenges - There is a bottleneck in the supply of copper concentrate, which is necessary for refining, leading to negative treatment charges for smelters [2]. - The shutdown of the Cobre Panama mine has exacerbated the concentrate supply tightness, potentially causing refined copper production to decline by 1.5% by 2026 unless scrap recovery increases [2]. Market Sentiment - Despite the apparent surplus, traders remain bullish due to historical underinvestment in large mines and the reallocation of global copper inventories due to trade policies [3]. - The U.S. warehouse inventories have surged to their highest levels since 2018, while futures exchange inventories have dropped to multi-year lows, indicating a complex supply situation [3]. Price Outlook - Experts anticipate that copper prices will continue to fluctuate rather than follow a single trend, with an average price expected to be around $9,500 per ton this year [4]. - Prices are projected to hover between $4.40 and $4.50 per pound in the latter half of the year, which is manageable for many manufacturers [4]. Potential Upside - Some analysts believe there is potential for copper prices to rise, particularly if global economic recovery, especially outside of China, gains momentum, potentially pushing prices above $10,000 per ton by 2026 [5]. - Resolution or easing of U.S.-China trade disputes could act as a bullish catalyst, releasing pent-up demand and narrowing price gaps [6].