巴菲特四成现金“保命”的高明之处在哪？

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The US manufacturing PMI has contracted for the third consecutive month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to increased economic uncertainty from trade policies [2][3] - In May 2025, all categories of manufacturing output, new orders, employment, and unfilled orders decreased, although the rate of decline slowed compared to the previous month [2] - The export sales decline has significantly widened, and the inventory index fell into contraction territory due to companies preemptively purchasing in April out of tariff policy concerns [2] Group 2: Trade Policies and Economic Impact - Trump's announcement to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50% has escalated tensions between the US and EU, contributing to global economic uncertainty [5] - The ISM reported that the supply delivery index rose to 56.1, indicating supply chain tensions caused by tariffs rather than strong economic demand [4] - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies and disappointing economic data has pressured asset prices, leading to a decline in the US dollar index [5] Group 3: Bond Market and Global Implications - The yield on US 30-year Treasury bonds surged above 5.0%, influenced by poor economic data and concerns over increased government debt issuance [7] - Rising long-term bond yields could lead to higher mortgage rates, impacting household affordability and potentially dragging down overall economic performance [7][8] - If a weak emerging market defaults due to rising debt costs, it could trigger a domino effect, destabilizing global financial markets and hindering international trade and investment [9][10] Group 4: Investment Strategies - In light of the accumulating risks in the stock and bond markets, some investors, like Buffett, have shifted their portfolios to hold more cash and short-term bonds to mitigate potential losses [11]