美元的衰落：空间及路径

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar has experienced a significant decline, dropping 8.4% in the first five months of the year, marking its worst start ever. Factors supporting the dollar's status are weakening, leading to potential capital outflows from the US and a decrease in the dollar's relative strength [1][2][3]. Group 1: Factors Weakening the Dollar - The US economy's relative size is declining, with its GDP share falling from 28% in the 1980s to 24% in 2019 [6]. - Rising debt risks are evident as the US maintains high fiscal deficit rates, with major rating agencies downgrading the US sovereign credit rating, undermining the safety of US Treasury bonds [10]. - Geopolitical tensions are increasing, with countries like Russia and Turkey actively promoting de-dollarization and reducing their dollar asset holdings [13]. Group 2: Dollar Valuation and Asset Allocation - The dollar is currently overvalued by 15-20%, with various methods indicating a significant need for depreciation to correct trade imbalances [14][18]. - Global investors are heavily over-allocated in dollar assets, particularly US equities, with countries like China, the EU, and Japan holding substantial dollar reserves [19]. - The valuation premium of US stocks compared to non-US markets is narrowing, indicating a potential shift in investment patterns [21][23]. Group 3: Potential Scenarios for Dollar Decline - The decline of the dollar may follow a "gradual then abrupt" pattern, similar to historical shifts in reserve currencies [25]. - Initial stages of decline may be slow due to the dollar's established advantages and lack of clear alternatives [27]. - However, specific triggers, such as a debt crisis or significant policy changes, could accelerate the dollar's decline [28].