Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-06-03 07:37Core Viewpoint - The green transition in shipping will drive the consumption of green methanol, clarifying downstream scenarios and opening up new capacity application breakthroughs for green hydrogen ammonia methanol projects, directly accelerating the commencement and implementation of green hydrogen projects [1] Green Methanol Consumption - Major global shipyards are purchasing methanol vessels and collaborating with upstream green methanol operators and port enterprises to ensure future green fuel supply. Currently, the operational green methanol capacity is only over 200,000 tons, while the demand from methanol-powered vessels is approximately 930,000 tons, indicating a supply-demand gap and a window for capturing green premiums. The shipbuilding cycle is about two years, with significant actions expected to commence in the second half of 2025, benefiting green methanol operators that first implement projects and collaborate with green methanol shipowners [2] Upstream Hydrogen Production - The construction cycle for various green methanol projects is 1 to 2 years. To align with the operational cycle of green methanol vessels (27 years under the IMO net-zero framework), it is anticipated that the existing approved but unstarted green hydrogen ammonia methanol projects will accelerate construction starting in the second half of 2025, driving demand for upstream hydrogen production equipment. It is estimated that the domestic electrolyzer bidding volume will reach 1.5 GW in 2025, with a preference for state-owned enterprises and related cooperative companies, recommending equipment companies with project experience [3] Fuel Cell Vehicles - Nine provinces and three cities have announced toll fee exemptions for hydrogen vehicles, marking a breakthrough in application scenarios. The year 2025 is the final year for demonstration city cluster policies and the first settlement point for the medium- to long-term hydrogen energy plan. The expansion of city clusters and the issuance of subsidies will accelerate the release of fuel cell vehicle volumes, with a focus on leading companies in fuel cell components [4] Key Recommendations - Recommended companies include Huadian Technology (601226), Huaguang Huaneng (600475), and Jidian Co., Ltd. (000875) [5]