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什么信号?经合组织下调美国增长预期,不再预计美联储年内降息
Jin Shi Shu Ju·2025-06-03 08:05

Economic Growth Forecasts - The OECD has further downgraded the economic growth forecasts for the US and globally, attributing this to the pressure from President Trump's tariff policies [1] - The US growth outlook for this year has been revised down to only 1.6%, with a projection of 1.5% for 2026, compared to a previous expectation of 2.2% growth in 2025 [1] - The OECD highlighted factors such as the impact of tariff policies, increased economic policy uncertainty, slowed net immigration, and reduced federal government employment as reasons for the downgrade [1] Global Economic Outlook - The OECD's latest global growth forecast has also been lowered, indicating that the economic slowdown is primarily concentrated in the US, Canada, and Mexico, while other economies are expected to see smaller adjustments [1] - Global GDP growth is projected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.9% in both this year and 2026, down from a previous forecast of 3.1% for this year and 3% for 2026 [1] - The report warns that the global outlook is becoming increasingly severe, with potential negative impacts from increased trade barriers, tightening financial conditions, weakened business and consumer confidence, and heightened policy uncertainty [1] Inflation Predictions - The OECD has adjusted its inflation forecasts, stating that higher trade costs, particularly in countries with increased tariffs, will push up inflation, although this effect will be partially offset by weaker commodity prices [2] - There is a significant disparity in inflation predictions between the US and other major economies, with the OECD now forecasting a US inflation rate of 3.2% for 2025, up from a previous estimate of 2.8%, and potentially nearing 4% by the end of 2025 [2] - The OECD expects that the Federal Reserve's interest rates will remain unchanged this year, and if inflation stays close to target, some central banks may continue to lower rates [2]