突发！特朗普全球关税被裁定越权，关税战第二局中国躺赢？

Group 1 - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that the Trump administration's "global benchmark tariff" policy, which imposed a 10% minimum tariff on global imports and an additional 20% "fentanyl tariff" on certain countries, was unconstitutional and must be halted immediately [1][3] - The court's decision is based on two legal grounds: the Constitution grants Congress exclusive power to regulate foreign trade, and significant economic policies like tariffs must be authorized by the legislative body rather than decided unilaterally by the President [3][5] - The lawsuit was initiated by five U.S. small businesses and twelve Democratic state governments, representing those most affected by the tariff policy, indicating a significant pushback against the Trump administration's approach [5] Group 2 - The ruling has deepened political divides in the U.S., with the White House announcing an appeal and threatening more aggressive measures, potentially prolonging the dispute until the 2026 elections [6][7] - Internationally, allies like the EU and Canada have paused their retaliatory actions due to the uncertainty created by the ruling, while neighboring countries like Mexico may adjust trade agreements in response to the U.S. policy vacuum [8] - China stands to benefit from the reduced tariff threats, potentially gaining a more favorable position in the second phase of trade negotiations, and can leverage this situation to emphasize its stance against unilateralism [9][10] Group 3 - Despite the halt of the tariff policy, companies are already adjusting their strategies, with some multinational corporations likely accelerating "nearshoring" or "China +1" strategies to mitigate future policy risks [11] - The ruling symbolizes a shift in global trade rules from "America First" towards a return to multilateralism, indicating a potential long-term restructuring of global supply chains [11] Group 4 - The Trump administration still has options to challenge the ruling, including appealing to the Supreme Court, where a majority of justices were appointed by Republicans, which could lead to a reversal of the lower court's decision [12][13] - The outcome of the 2024 elections could significantly impact trade policies, with potential for either a continuation of the tariff strategy or a comprehensive policy shift depending on which party wins [14]