油价的“珍珠港行情”能走多远？

Group 1 - The recent drone attacks by Ukraine on Russian airbases have reintroduced supply risk factors into the oil market [2] - OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in July, which was anticipated and already priced in by traders [2][3] - OPEC+ will reintroduce 1.37 million barrels per day into the market by July, indicating growing dissatisfaction among members regarding compliance with production quotas [3] Group 2 - Despite internal disagreements between Saudi Arabia and Russia on production increases, a compromise was reached to increase output [4] - The market outlook suggests that if production cuts continue to return at a slower pace from August, it may lead to a contango structure in Brent crude futures, indicating oversupply and weak demand [4] - The ongoing battle between short and long positions in the market is intensifying, with short positions at a high not seen since October of the previous year [5] Group 3 - Current market sentiment is cautious, with traders advised to wait for new supply constraint news before making significant moves [6] - The recent price movements in oil are attributed to geopolitical factors, with some analysts suggesting that the geopolitical premium on oil prices is limited [7] - Concerns about economic uncertainty potentially impacting oil demand in the third quarter are growing [7][8]