特朗普关税“撕裂”美联储：鹰鸽两派激辩，利率走向成谜！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing significant internal divisions regarding whether to maintain interest rates or consider rate cuts later this year, influenced by the potential lasting impact of tariffs on inflation [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Some officials advocate for ignoring the temporary effects of tariffs on inflation, opening the door for potential rate cuts [1] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee believes the uncertainty surrounding tariffs is creating some "dust in the air," but still sees a path toward rate cuts [2] - Other members, including Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Logan, argue for keeping rates unchanged until the impact of tariffs becomes clearer [2][3] Group 2: Inflation and Tariff Impact - Waller, a Fed governor, asserts that any inflation caused by tariffs is likely to be temporary, aligning with the White House's view that price increases will be short-lived [1][4] - The Fed's May meeting minutes indicate that some officials believe tariffs on intermediate goods could lead to more persistent inflation [3][4] - Waller anticipates that the impact of tariffs on inflation will be most pronounced in the second half of 2025, depending on the final extent of tariff increases and responses from exporters and importers [4] Group 3: Economic Conditions and Policy Implications - Waller emphasizes that a strong job market and recent progress in inflation provide the Fed with time to observe trade negotiations and economic developments [1] - Logan warns that while short-term rate cuts can stimulate employment, excessive cuts could lead to an inflation spiral over time [3] - Some officials suggest that factors such as reduced tariff increases through trade negotiations and low consumer tolerance for price hikes could offset rising inflation [4]