后物质时代的消费革命：卡牌热是泡沫还是风口？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment potential and operational dynamics of a collectible card game company, emphasizing the importance of supply-side factors over demand-side analysis in understanding the company's business model and market positioning [3][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - The company operates primarily in the collectible card game sector, relying on non-exclusive IP licensing and targeting younger audiences [4]. - The business model is straightforward, focusing on acquiring IP and selling toys, which leads to significant revenue volatility [5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2022, 2023, and 2024 are 4.13 billion, 2.66 billion, and 10.06 billion RMB respectively, with a notable decline of 35.6% in 2023 followed by a projected increase of 277.8% in 2024 [6]. - Gross profit for the same years is 2.84 billion, 1.75 billion, and 6.77 billion RMB, with gross margins of 68.8%, 65.8%, and 67.3% respectively [7]. - The company experienced a net loss in 2024, attributed to high stock-based compensation and fair value changes of preferred shares, which are not expected to impact cash flow significantly [10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The company heavily relies on the Ultraman IP, which constituted over 80% of its revenue in 2022, leading to vulnerability during market disruptions [8]. - In 2023, the company introduced 36 new IPs, but the transition to new revenue streams was slow, contributing to the revenue drop [8]. Group 4: Competitive Advantage - The company's core competency lies in its expertise in collectible card design and manufacturing, which is crucial for maintaining IP partnerships [11][14]. - The relationship with IP licensors is strengthened by the company's established manufacturing capabilities and compliance, making it a preferred partner for IP owners [13][14]. Group 5: Industry Context - The article highlights the unique advantages of the Chinese market, including strong manufacturing capabilities, legal protections for IP, and a robust secondary market for collectibles, which are essential for the growth of companies like this one [15][18].