Ge Long Hui·2025-06-03 09:58Core Insights - Li Auto's Q1 2025 gross margin exceeded expectations, with a gross margin of 20.5% despite a significant drop in sales volume [1] - The company expects Q2 deliveries to be between 123,000 and 128,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.3% to 17.9% [2] - The MEGA Home model has gained significant consumer preference, with over 90% of MEGA orders being for the Home version [3] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 sales volume was 93,000 units, with revenue of 25.93 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1% [1] - Q1 net profit attributable to shareholders was 650 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 10% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit decreased by 20% year-on-year to 1.02 billion RMB [1] Future Outlook - The company aims to return to a monthly sales level of 50,000 units soon, although profitability may be pressured due to increased discounts in Q2 [2] - The first pure electric SUV, i8, is set to launch in July, with the i6 model following in September [2] - The VLA model will be released alongside the i8, enhancing the capabilities of the AD Max advanced driver assistance system [4] Product Development - The MEGA Home model features innovative seating and upgraded technology, priced at 559,800 RMB, and is expected to see increased production capacity [3] - Li Auto's supercharging network has expanded to 2,328 stations and 12,689 charging piles, supporting rapid charging capabilities [3] Investment Projections - The company forecasts sales of approximately 580,000, 750,000, and 870,000 vehicles from 2025 to 2027, with total revenues reaching 155.5 billion, 197.9 billion, and 238.3 billion RMB respectively [5] - The target market capitalization is set at 280.9 billion RMB, with a target price of approximately 131 HKD and 33 USD [5]