当稳定币走上风口，“稳定币第一股”周四要IPO了

Core Viewpoint - Circle Internet Group, the issuer of the $60 billion USDC stablecoin, is set to go public on the NYSE, with an expected valuation increase from $5.65 billion to $7.2 billion, amid significant interest from Wall Street [1][2]. Group 1: IPO Details - Circle plans to issue 32 million Class A shares at a price range of $27 to $28, aiming to raise up to $896 million [1]. - The IPO is seen as timely, with stablecoins gaining traction as a digital dollar alternative, especially in the context of increasing skepticism towards central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) [15][16]. Group 2: Market Position and Financials - Circle's USDC holds a 25% market share in the stablecoin market, with a total market cap of $248 billion, second only to Tether's USDT [3]. - The company generated approximately $1.6 billion in interest income in 2024, accounting for 99% of its total revenue, despite a decline in net profit from $268 million to $156 million, a drop of 42% [5][6]. Group 3: Business Model and Challenges - Circle's business model involves issuing USDC pegged to the dollar and investing user deposits in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds, which has proven profitable [5]. - However, the company faces structural challenges, including rising distribution and transaction costs, primarily due to its profit-sharing agreement with Coinbase [8][9]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The stablecoin market is expected to grow significantly, with projections estimating it could reach $1.4 trillion by 2030, increasing competition from tech giants and banks [14]. - Circle's reliance on interest rates for revenue poses risks, as lower rates could diminish profitability, while competitors may undercut prices to gain market share [13][14]. Group 5: Shareholder Dynamics - Existing shareholders are selling 60% of the total shares in the IPO, a significantly higher percentage than typical tech IPOs, which may send mixed signals to the market [18][20]. - The CEO and several venture capital firms plan to sell portions of their stakes, indicating a potential shift in shareholder confidence [18].