参考50%的铁铝关税，铜、镍和铂金等基本和铂族金属的“关税推动涨价”风险被低估

Group 1 - Trump's plan to increase tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50% starting June 4 may be just the beginning of a broader trade war [1] - Citigroup's report indicates that investigations under Section 232 could lead to tariffs on copper and other key metals in the coming months [1][2] - Higher tariffs are expected to raise metal prices, increasing procurement costs for U.S. metal consumers, while also creating arbitrage opportunities for investors [1] Group 2 - Legal obstacles have previously hindered Trump's tariff policies, but urgency has increased for the U.S. government to implement trade measures [2] - The final report on copper materials is due by November 25, with a mid-term report on critical minerals expected on July 14 [2] - Citigroup anticipates that tariffs may be implemented by the third quarter of 2025 as research progresses rapidly [2] Group 3 - Citigroup analysts express caution regarding base metal prices before June, predicting continued pressure on prices, especially for copper, by the third quarter of 2025 [3] - High net long positions in copper may lead to a decline in demand once tariff policies are clarified, putting further pressure on copper prices [3] Group 4 - Two key areas may restrict metal demand growth: a decline in solar installations and challenges in the electric vehicle (EV) sector [5] - Solar installations in China are projected to drop by 39% to 44% in the second half of 2025, directly impacting copper demand [5] - Potential U.S. policies to curb EV sales and shifts in battery technology focus may limit demand for nickel and cobalt, affecting market outlook [5]