光大证券国际：恒指下半年将平稳向上 南下资金持续流入

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hang Seng Index is expected to trend upward in the second half of the year, driven by new stimulus policies from mainland China, with a target price of 25,000 points and reduced overall volatility [1] - The widening interest rate differential between China and the US has historically pressured Hong Kong stocks, but this trend has reversed in recent years, with the recent increase in the differential coinciding with a rise in Hong Kong stocks [1] - The current valuation of the Hang Seng Index is considered reasonable, with an average dividend yield of 3.9% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.6 times, both near historical averages [1] Group 2 - There has been a significant inflow of mainland funds into Hong Kong stocks, with over HKD 575.5 billion net inflow as of May 9 this year, driven by the higher dividend yield of Hong Kong stocks compared to declining long-term bond yields in mainland China [1] - The inflow of international funds into Hong Kong stocks has primarily come from Southeast Asia and some European and American funds, with expectations of further inflows if US-China relations improve and the Chinese economy remains stable [2] - Key sectors to watch in the second half include domestic consumption, innovative technology, new energy vehicles, and traditional thermal power, as more stimulus policies targeting daily consumer spending are anticipated [2]