经济衰退竟是“最佳买点”？大摩：标普500最高将迎22%涨幅

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson suggests that a mild economic recession could pave the way for a stock market rally, particularly if it leads to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a recalibration of corporate earnings expectations [1][2] - The firm has reduced concerns about an economic recession due to recent easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, projecting the S&P 500 index to rise to 6,500 points in the next 12 months, approximately a 10% increase from current levels [2] - In a bullish scenario, Morgan Stanley anticipates a mild recession followed by a market rally, with the S&P 500 potentially reaching 7,200 points, representing a 22% increase if the economy rebounds quickly from tariff-induced fluctuations [2] Group 2 - Wilson notes that if a recession occurs, the Federal Reserve will likely need to lower interest rates to alleviate high unemployment and stimulate the economy, with expectations of seven rate cuts by 2026 providing significant support for the stock market [3] - The stock market is expected to bottom out in early 2026 and then rebound, with earnings per share (EPS) growth briefly dipping into mild negative territory before recovering, driven by cyclical sectors sensitive to interest rates and government spending [3] - In the event of a mild recession, small-cap stocks and lower-rated stocks are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries, as smaller companies typically gain more in low-interest-rate environments [3]