Taiwan Semiconductor Rises 13% in Three Months: How to Play the Stock?

Core Insights - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) has achieved a 12.6% stock gain over the past three months, outperforming the broader Zacks Computer and Technology sector, which rose 4.4% [1] - TSM's stock performance has surpassed several peers, including ASML Holding, Lam Research Corporation, and Marvell Technology, with Marvell experiencing a significant decline of 28.4% [2] - Investor confidence in TSM's long-term prospects is increasing, supported by strong fundamentals and a favorable long-term outlook [3] AI-Driven Growth - TSM is benefiting from the AI revolution, leading the global chip foundry market and becoming a key partner for advanced chipmaking for major companies like NVIDIA and Broadcom [5] - AI-related revenues tripled in 2024, contributing a mid-teen percentage to TSM's total revenues, with expectations to double again in 2025 and a projected 40% compound annual growth rate over the next five years [6] Financial Performance - In the first quarter of 2025, TSM reported a 35% year-over-year revenue increase to $25.53 billion and a 53% rise in net income to nearly $11 billion, driven by demand for advanced 3nm and 5nm nodes [7] - The first-quarter EPS increased by 53.6% to $2.12, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.03, with an average surprise of 6.9% over the last four quarters [8] Capital Expenditure Plans - TSM plans to increase capital expenditures to between $38 billion and $42 billion in 2025, up from $29.8 billion in 2024, with around 70% allocated for advanced manufacturing capabilities [10] Valuation and Investment Strategy - Despite strong growth, TSM's stock is reasonably priced, trading at a forward P/E multiple of 19.96X, lower than the sector average of 25.52 [11] - TSM's P/E ratio is also lower than peers like ASML, Lam Research, and Marvell Technology, reinforcing the case for holding the stock [12] Short-Term Challenges - TSM faces near-term challenges, including higher energy prices in Taiwan due to a 25% electricity hike in 2024, which could impact advanced node production [13] - Softness in key markets such as PCs and smartphones is expected to limit growth, with projected low single-digit growth in 2025 [14] - The company's global expansion strategy, including new fabs in the U.S., Japan, and Germany, may strain gross margins due to higher costs and lower utilization rates initially [15] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly U.S.-China relations, pose strategic risks, with potential impacts from export restrictions and supply-chain disruptions [16] Conclusion - TSM remains a cornerstone of the semiconductor industry, with strong capabilities in advanced chip manufacturing and significant exposure to AI demand, but short-term headwinds necessitate a cautious investment stance [19]