有段时间没写SemiAnalysis 的报告了，之前的文章中我们就提到过一个观点，关于AI泡沫，其实是有 三个卡点：电力、Memory和台积电的CoWoS产能。但从SA的这个报告来看，CoWoS产能虽然紧张， 但不是死结，晶圆产能更为致命。 这篇文章来看下SA最新的分析：TSMC: King of Waffer Supply. Anthropic 一个月赚了 60 亿美元，但他们想要更多 先说个数字：Anthropic 在今年 2 月，仅仅一个月时间，就新增了 60 亿美元的年度经常性收入。这是 什么概念？主要靠的是他们的 Claude Code 这个 AI 编程工具。 "如果 Anthropic 有更多算力，他们本可以赚得更多。" 这不是客套话。现在整个行业都在疯狂找 GPU，连两代之前的 Hopper 显卡，按需租用价格还在涨。 我们团队前段时间想找点小规模集群测试，问了一圈云服务商，全都锁死了，一台都租不到。 你看这些科技巨头的资本开支，都在往上飙。但他们自己都说，不是不想花更多钱，是根本买不到芯 片。 台积电的 3nm 产能，成了香饽饽 问题出在哪？核心就是台积电的 3nm 制程产能跟不上了。 今年是 ...

近日，芯思想研究院发布的《2025年全球专属晶圆代工TOP10》榜单显示，2025年晶圆代工行业整 体营收首次突破万亿大关，达到11485亿元，相较2024年实现25.46%的同比增长。 这一数字的背后，是全球数字化、智能化浪潮对芯片需求的持续攀升，也是晶圆代工模式在半导体产 业链中分工价值的进一步凸显。 | | | | | 2025年全球专属品圆代工TOP10 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年排名 2024年排名 | | 公司 | 总部 | 2024年 | 2024年市占率 | 2025年 | 2024年市占率 | 年增长率 | | 1 | J | 台积电TSMC | 中国台湾 | 6476 | 70.74% | 8528 | 74.25% | 31.69% | | 2 | 2 | 中心国际SMIC | 中国大陆 | ਟਵਰ | 6.22% | 680 | 5.92% | 19.51% | | ਤੇ | 3 | 联电UMC | 中国台湾 | 209 | 5.57% | 521 | 4.54% | ...

Core Insights - The article compares Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) in terms of investment potential, particularly in the context of the AI revolution and semiconductor market dynamics [1][2] Company Overview - TSMC manufactures approximately two-thirds of the global foundry market and is crucial for advanced process nodes that power AI accelerators from major companies like Nvidia, AMD, Apple, and Intel [1] - AMD designs AI accelerators and data-center chips, boasting a projected 77% return in 2025, but has narrower exposure compared to TSMC [1] Financial Metrics - TSMC trades at a lower earnings multiple in the mid-20s, while AMD has a higher valuation with a price-earnings ratio exceeding 30 [1] - TSMC is expected to achieve a 60% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in AI-linked revenue over the next several years, driven by increasing demand for AI chips [1][2] Business Models - TSMC's business model allows it to diversify its AI exposure across various sectors, including data centers, smartphones, PCs, and automotive, providing a more resilient earnings base [2] - AMD's success is more dependent on the pace of data center AI adoption and its ability to execute on its accelerator roadmap, which presents certain risks [2] Investment Outlook - For long-term investors, TSMC is viewed as a potentially better investment due to its disciplined capital allocation, broad customer base, and reasonable valuation [2] - The article suggests that TSMC's role as a central player in the semiconductor supply chain positions it favorably to benefit from the ongoing AI infrastructure spending [2]

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is driving efficiency, cost savings, and innovation, significantly impacting market performance, with the S&P 500 rising 78% over the past three years due to AI [1] - Despite recent market volatility, major tech companies are investing heavily in AI infrastructure, with a projected capital spending boom exceeding $660 billion this year [2][4] - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is positioned to be the biggest beneficiary of the AI infrastructure spending boom, as it manufactures chips for multiple top chip designers [5][6] Industry Overview - The current and future spending on AI infrastructure is substantial, with tech giants like Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta Platforms committing over $660 billion this year alone [4] - Predictions indicate that AI infrastructure spending could reach $4 trillion by the end of the decade, highlighting the long-term growth potential in this sector [4] Company Analysis - TSMC is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the AI boom, as it produces chips for various designers, thus benefiting from the overall growth in demand for AI technologies [6] - The company has reported double-digit revenue growth in its latest earnings report, reinforcing confidence in the long-term growth of AI [9] - TSMC's strong market position is supported by the ongoing demand from major chip designers, which is expected to continue as companies develop AI platforms [8]

March 12, 2026 05:10 PM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific Global and China AI GPU Industry – Can China Close the Gap with the US? Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Ethan Jia Research Associate Ethan.Jia@morganstanley.com +852 3963-2287 Greater China Technology Semiconductors Asia Pacific Industry View Attractive M Foundation Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ Charlie Chan Equity Analyst Charlie.Chan@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-1725 Daniel Yen, CFA Equity Analyst Daniel.Yen@morganstanley.com +886 2 2730-2863 ...

Group 1 - Zhaoyi Innovation (03986) saw an intraday increase of 1.72% amid rising shipping risks in the Hormuz Strait affecting the supply chain of key raw materials like helium [1] - Rongchang Bio (09995) rose over 3.6% after its RC288 injection application was accepted by NMPA, showing excellent anti-tumor activity and safety in preclinical studies [1] - Swire Properties (01972) increased by over 2.2% following the release of its 2025 full-year results, reporting revenue of HKD 16.041 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11%, and a basic earnings per share of HKD 1.49 [1] Group 2 - Health 160 (02656) surged over 10%, reaching a new high of HKD 140.5, with a nearly doubled stock price since March 9, despite a previous drop of about 30% on February 11 [2] - Gaming stocks collectively rose, with notable increases in companies like Boyaa Interactive (00434) up 4.44% and Tencent (00700) up 1.1%, following Apple's announcement of a commission rate adjustment for the App Store in mainland China [2] - Qidian Guofeng (01280) experienced a significant rise of over 26% after announcing a sales contract for AI servers with an independent third party [2] Group 3 - Hong Kong bank stocks fell again, with Standard Chartered (02888) down 4.67% and HSBC Holdings (00005) down 3.8%, amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East affecting transactions involving Asian balance sheets [3] - Cement stocks saw a general increase, with China National Building Material (03323) up 2.62%, as construction activity picked up post-Lantern Festival, leading to a steady recovery in cement market demand [3] - Domestic property stocks rebounded, with CIFI Holdings (00884) up 2.9% and Sunac China (01918) up 5.45%, as recent data indicated a 3.3% year-on-year decline in second-hand housing listings in Shenzhen [4] Group 4 - Yao Cai Securities (01428) saw a significant rise of over 39% after extending the acquisition offer deadline with Ant Group to March 25, 2026 [4] - PayPay (PAYP.US), a digital wallet operator backed by SoftBank, debuted on the US stock market with a 13.5% increase, achieving a market cap of nearly USD 12 billion [5] - Chinese electric vehicle companies NIO (NIO.US) and Xpeng Motors (XPEV.US) saw stock increases of 1.46% and 3.58%, respectively, amid discussions of potential collaborations with European automotive giant Stellantis [5] Group 5 - Storage stocks collectively declined, with SanDisk (SNDK.US) down 5.59% and Micron Technology (MU.US) down 3.19%, following negative sentiment from short-seller Citron Capital [6] - Optical communication stocks fell, with Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI.US) down 16.39%, despite securing a bulk order for a new data center transceiver [6] - Agricultural input stocks continued to rise, with CF Industries Holdings (CF.US) up 13.21%, driven by supply chain disruptions in the Middle East affecting fertilizer transportation [7] Group 6 - Oil stocks rose sharply, with Battalion Oil (BATL.US) up 15.48% as international oil prices surged, with WTI crude rising over 8% to USD 94.66 [8] - EHang Intelligent (EH.US) reported total revenue of RMB 509.5 million (approximately USD 72.9 million) for the fiscal year 2025, marking an 11.7% year-on-year increase, despite a net loss of RMB 231 million [8]

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 为了降低每比特能耗并提高带宽，人工智能数据中心开始用共封装光器件取代铜线。 使用CPO的优势在于，它可以将光连接更靠近ASIC、GPU或CPU，从而减少对长而低效的电线的需 求。虽然CPO本身并非低功耗，但它能提供极低的每比特传输能耗——这是衡量数据中心效率的关键 指标。 CPO 没有采用传统的远距离可插拔收发器，而是将光子引擎直接集成到同一封装基板上或同一模块 内，使得电信号在多芯片组件中只需传输几毫米，而不是像通常那样从芯片到前面板需要通过 PCB 传输 15 到 30 厘米。 这是人工智能发展中至关重要的一环。据麦肯锡公司预测，到2030年，满足全球人工智能需求将需要 5.2万亿美元的数据中心投资。因此，解决电力和带宽挑战对于确保超大规模企业获得最佳投资回报 至关重要。在采用CPO（计算机化产品）方面处于领先地位的公司包括博通、英伟达、英特尔、 Marvell和Ayar Labs，它们拥有各种技术和产品，并由GlobalFoundries、IBM、英特尔晶圆代工、 Tower Semi和台积电等代工厂提供支持。EDA工具供应商Cadence、Keysigh ...

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 代币需求正呈爆炸式增长，对人工智能计算的需求也在持续加速。模型能力的提升以及智能体工作流程的快速发展，推 动了用户采用率和代币总需求的激增。仅在二月份，Anthropic 就新增了高达 60 亿美元的年度经常性收入 (ARR)，这主 要得益于智能体编码平台 Claude Code 的广泛应用。如果 Anthropic 拥有更多计算资源，其新增收入还会更高。尽管过 去几年人工智能基础设施建设规模庞大，但可用的计算资源仍然稀缺。即使是已经推出近两代的 Hopper 处理器，其按 需 GPU 的价格也在持续上涨。 根据我们自身的经验，我们联系了所有我们了解的超大规模云服务提供商，询问他们是否有可用的小型集群，但所有资 源都已被牢牢锁定。这种供应紧张的局面解释了超大规模云服务提供商资本支出计划的大幅调整。普遍预期已大幅上 调，其中谷歌的情况最为突出，其2026年的资本支出预期几乎是此前预期的两倍，这主要是由于数据中心和服务器支出 增加所致。 这是一笔巨额支出，如果条件允许，超大规模数据中心运营商会投入更多资金，但他们受到一个关键因素的制约：硅芯 片供应。目前先进的逻辑和 ...

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE:TSM) is one of the Best AI Stocks That Will Make You A Millionaire. On March 10, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE:TSM) reported revenue data for February 2026. ​The company reported February 2026 revenue of approximately NT$317.66 billion, reflecting a 20.8% decrease month-over-month. However, the revenue was up 22.2% year-over-year from NT$260.009 billion in February 2025. Moreover, the revenue from January 2026 to February ...

记者丨 张嘉钰 吴斌 编辑丨曾静娇 3月12日，美股低开低走，三大股指悉数跌超1%，截至北京时间22:29，道指跌1.46%跌近700点，纳指跌1.57%，标普500指数跌1.25%。 | 道琼斯工业 | 纳斯达克指 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 46726.03 | 22358.53 | 6691.16 | | -691.24 -1.46% | -357.60 -1.57% | -84.64 -1.25% | | 美国科技七 | 中概科技龙 | 中国余龙 | | 61625.55 | 3874.68 | 7146.75 | | -1068.65 -1.70% -53.01 -1.35% | | -20.70 -0.29% | | 道琼斯期货 | 纳斯达克100 | 标普500期货 | | 47032 | 24742.75 | 6726.75 | | -416 -0.88% | -240.75 -0.96% | -52.75 -0.78% | 大型科技股普跌，万得美股科技七巨头指数跌1.53%，苹果、英伟达跌超2%，特斯拉、脸书、谷歌跌超1.5%。 | 名称 现价 | | 淵 ...