Should You Hold on to AMZN Stock in 2H25 Despite its 5.8% YTD Decline?

Core Insights - Amazon's stock has underperformed in 2025, declining 5.8% year to date despite strong first-quarter results that exceeded expectations [1][10] - Investors are faced with a decision to hold their positions or wait for better entry points in the latter half of 2025 [10] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Amazon reported revenues of $155.7 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, with net income rising 64% to $17.1 billion and earnings per share increasing to $1.59 from $0.98 [2] - Operating income grew 20% to $18.4 billion, surpassing management's guidance [2] - North America segment revenues increased by 8% to $92.9 billion, while international operations also saw 8% growth, excluding foreign exchange impacts [3] Cash Flow and Investment - Free cash flow dropped significantly to $25.9 billion from $50.1 billion due to increased capital expenditures of $87.9 billion focused on AI infrastructure and fulfillment network expansion [4] - This investment cycle is aimed at positioning Amazon for future growth but is straining near-term cash generation [4][22] Valuation Metrics - Amazon's forward 12-month Price-to-Sales ratio stands at 3.04X, higher than the Zacks Internet - Commerce industry average of 2X, indicating potential overvaluation at current levels [5] AWS Performance - Amazon Web Services (AWS) achieved 17% year-over-year growth, generating $29.3 billion in quarterly revenues and reaching a $117 billion annualized run rate [8] - AWS operating margins expanded to 39.5%, showcasing scalability and pricing power [8] - AWS backlog reached $189 billion, providing substantial revenue visibility and supporting future growth projections [11] AI Initiatives - Amazon's AI initiatives are seen as a competitive advantage, with new developments in the AWS Management Console enhancing user experience [12] - The AI business is projected to have a multi-billion-dollar annual run rate with triple-digit growth rates [9] - Amazon's AI developments extend into retail operations, enhancing product discovery and customer engagement [20] Operational Challenges - Amazon faces operational challenges, including tariff uncertainties that complicate inventory management [21] - The company is implementing strategies to mitigate potential disruptions, leveraging its diversified supplier base [21] Investment Outlook - Current investors are advised to hold their positions due to Amazon's fundamental strengths and growth potential across various sectors [27] - New investors may consider waiting for better entry points in the second half of 2025, as potential catalysts could drive stock appreciation [28] - Monitoring AWS capacity deployment and macroeconomic developments may reveal favorable purchasing opportunities [29]