分析人士：市场风险偏好有望回升

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a rebound in April, with significant decline in volatility in May, and analysts expect a strong oscillation in June, focusing on liquidity, policy implementation, and economic expectations [1] - The A-share market currently exhibits a "strong reality, weak expectation" characteristic, with improved economic data due to policies like "two new, two heavy," "automobile replacement subsidies," and "consumption vouchers" [1] Economic Indicators - In Q1, the net profit growth rate for all A-shares excluding financials was 3.4%, reversing two years of negative growth, indicating clear fundamental support for the index [1] - However, internal demand remains insufficient, and asset price declines pose constraints on economic recovery [1] - April's PPI fell by 2.7% year-on-year, with a widening month-on-month decline, and recent social financing growth primarily relies on government debt issuance, with new RMB loan scales being relatively small [1] Future Outlook - The second quarter is expected to maintain basic data without significant decline, while the third quarter will be a critical period to validate the strength of economic recovery [1] - Previously announced government debt quotas may bottom out in Q3, with new policy measures likely to be introduced, making it a key period for index direction [1] Liquidity and Policy Measures - In May, the central bank implemented a series of monetary policies to provide ample liquidity to the market, with significant policies expected to be released by the Shanghai government during the 2025 Lujiazui Forum [2] - The economic data from April and May indicates that US-China trade tensions have not fundamentally impacted China's stable economic development, highlighting the resilience of the economy [2] Long-term Investment Trends - Policies are continuously guiding "long money, long investment," with ongoing updates on insurance fund long-term investment reform trials [3] - The inflow of "long money" is expected to stabilize the market and reduce stock market volatility, with public funds projected to increase their A-share holdings by at least 10% annually over the next three years [3] - The correlation between A-share valuations and medium to long-term RMB loans is significant, particularly for small-cap indices like the CSI 1000, which are notably influenced by liquidity [3] Investment Preferences - Long-term funds tend to have longer holding periods, lower capital costs, and place greater emphasis on the stability of equity assets, benefiting large-cap broad-based indices and dividend low-volatility themes [4]