Where Will Energy Transfer Be in 1 Year?

Core Viewpoint - Energy Transfer is a midstream master limited partnership (MLP) with a distribution yield of 7.5%, presenting both growth opportunities and historical challenges [1] Business Overview - Energy Transfer owns energy pipelines, storage, and transportation assets, primarily charging fees for their use, with approximately 90% of adjusted EBITDA linked to these fees [2] - The business is diversified across various segments: natural gas liquids and refined products (24% of EBITDA), midstream assets (23%), natural gas pipelines and storage (21%), crude oil (18%), and stakes in two publicly traded MLPs (14%) [4] Financial Health and Growth Prospects - The company has reduced leverage to levels that management is comfortable with and is planning $5 billion in capital investments for 2025 [8] - Capital investments will be allocated across different segments: midstream (30%), natural gas liquids and refined products (28%), natural gas pipelines (28%), oil (6%), and other projects [9] - Management targets a distribution growth of 3% to 5% annually for the foreseeable future, indicating a focus on slow and steady growth [10] Historical Context and Investor Sentiment - Past events, such as a distribution cut in 2020 and the cancellation of a deal to acquire Williams in 2016, may cause conservative investors to be cautious [5][6] - Despite historical challenges, the company is expected to be slightly larger and more profitable in the coming year, potentially leading to a higher distribution [11] - The sustainable growth path of Energy Transfer is comparable to that of peers like Enterprise Products Partners, which has a strong track record of annual distribution increases [12]