中国管制稀土出口，后果有多严重？

Group 1 - China has decided to impose export controls on seven categories of medium and heavy rare earth materials, which include alloys, oxides, and compounds, amid tariff disputes with the US [2] - Over 90% of rare earth materials are processed in China, with Japan and the US accounting for 53% of China's exports, and including the Netherlands, this figure rises to two-thirds [2] - Rare earth elements are critical for advanced industries, with specific applications in military and electric vehicle technologies, such as the F-35 fighter jet requiring 417 kg of rare earths for its radar and engine coatings [2][4] Group 2 - The export ban has triggered a domino effect in the automotive industry, with companies like Ford forced to shut down factories due to a shortage of magnets, and Indian manufacturers facing potential production halts [3] - MP Materials and other US companies are accelerating mining efforts, but face significant technological barriers in heavy rare earth separation, while Australian Lynas's expansion plans are insufficient to meet demand [3] - South Korean companies like Samsung and Hyundai Heavy Industries have received warnings about potential sanctions for supplying military products to the US, with a significant portion of the F-35 supply chain at risk of disruption [3] Group 3 - China's resource advantage is being leveraged as a tool in geopolitical strategy, with the US Defense Authorization Act prohibiting the use of Chinese rare earths in sensitive systems before 2026, pushing military sectors towards self-reliance [4] - The price of terbium has surged by 24% to $933 per kilogram within two months, indicating market reactions to the supply chain disruptions [4] Group 4 - Experts suggest that even with the formation of a critical minerals working group among the Quad alliance (US, Japan, Australia, India), China's rare earth extraction technology is unlikely to be surpassed within the next decade [5] - The ongoing "rare earth war" is rapidly fracturing global supply chains, raising questions about who will bear the costs of this geopolitical struggle [5]