闫瑞祥：美联储观望态度下，市场等待非农与政策指引

Macroeconomic Overview - The gold market is experiencing intense long-short battles, reaching a near four-week high before retreating due to a stronger dollar, creating uncertainty [1] - The U.S. dollar rebounded by 0.6% on Tuesday, increasing the holding cost of gold and suppressing demand [1] - Trump's proposal to double steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% heightens market caution, potentially benefiting gold through safe-haven demand while being limited by a stronger dollar [1] - The Senate's tax bill may increase debt by $3.8 trillion, which could weaken the dollar in the long term and support gold prices, although short-term expectations suggest a weaker dollar may help gold rebound [1] - Signs of cooling in the labor market are emerging, with April layoffs reaching a nine-month high and May non-farm payrolls expected to show job growth slowing to 130,000, with the unemployment rate possibly rising to 4.3% [1] - The Federal Reserve shows significant internal disagreement regarding the relationship between tariffs and inflation, with the June meeting expected to maintain interest rates but focus on policy guidance [1] - Gold is currently under short-term pressure from the dollar but supported by safe-haven demand, likely to continue fluctuating in the short term while maintaining long-term appeal [1] Dollar Index - The dollar index showed an upward trend on Tuesday, reaching a high of 99.308 and closing at 99.245 [2] - The market initially experienced a short-term decline but rebounded, breaking previous resistance levels [2] - The weekly resistance is noted at 101.10, suggesting a bearish outlook in the medium term, while the daily resistance is at 99.60 [2] - The price is currently under pressure at the daily resistance level, indicating a cautious approach towards potential short positions [2] Gold Market - On Tuesday, gold prices generally declined, with a high of 3392.02 and a low of 3332.98, closing at 3353.23 [4] - The early session saw a price surge followed by a drop below previous lows, indicating a lack of strong bullish momentum [4] - The four-hour support level is critical, with a bearish close indicating potential further declines if this support is broken [4] - Monthly analysis shows that gold is expected to maintain a bullish outlook unless it breaks below the key support level of 2780 [5] - The daily support level is at 3310, which is crucial for maintaining a bullish stance in the short term [5] - The four-hour support at 3350 is essential for determining short-term price strength, with a cautious approach recommended until this level is tested [5] Euro/USD Market - The Euro/USD pair experienced a decline on Tuesday, with a low of 1.1363 and a close at 1.1369 [7] - The market initially rose but faced pressure, breaking below the four-hour support level [7] - Monthly support is at 1.0850, indicating a long-term bullish perspective, while the weekly support is at 1.1160 [7] - The daily support level at 1.1330 is critical for maintaining a bullish outlook, with short-term pressure noted after breaking the four-hour support [7]