Nanhua Futures(SH:603093) Jin Tou Wang·2025-06-04 06:03Core Viewpoint - The coal futures market in China is experiencing a bullish trend, particularly in coking coal, with prices showing a significant increase amid fluctuating supply and demand dynamics [1][2]. Supply Analysis - Overseas supply of coking coal at the China-Mongolia border has increased seasonally, but trade volumes remain low, leading to high inventory levels [1] - Domestic coal mines are gradually resuming operations, with an increase in the operating rate and capacity utilization of 110 washing plants, resulting in a more relaxed overall supply of coking coal [1] - The cost-effectiveness of imported Australian coal has diminished, leading to a decrease in import volumes [1] Demand Analysis - Steel mills are seeking profits from upstream coking coal producers, but the second round of price reductions for coke has begun, indicating weakening demand [1] - The overall demand for coking coal is under pressure, with expectations of a decline in terminal demand impacting the market [2] - The anticipated peak in iron and steel production has led to a negative feedback loop in the black chain, further weakening demand for coking coal [1][2] Market Sentiment and Recommendations - Current market sentiment is influenced by political changes in Mongolia, which may lead to short-term price rebounds in coking coal [1] - Analysts suggest a bearish outlook for coking coal, recommending traders to consider short positions during price rebounds, with specific resistance levels identified for coking coal and coke futures [2]