安联CIO：一旦第899条款全面实施，美股将暴跌10%，美元大跌5%

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of Clause 899 could lead to significant market turmoil, potentially resulting in a 10% sell-off in the stock market, a 5% drop in the dollar, and a half-percentage point increase in U.S. Treasury yields [2]. Group 1: Market Impact - Clause 899 is expected to change the tax treatment of foreign capital in the U.S., which could be a "nuclear option" of the Trump administration [2]. - The clause targets individuals and businesses from countries deemed to have "discriminatory" tax policies, increasing tax rates on digital services tax (DST), diverted profits tax (DPT), and low-tax profit rules under the OECD global minimum tax framework [2][3]. - The clause may accelerate capital outflows, further undermining foreign investor confidence in U.S. assets, which already faces challenges due to Trump's trade policies and fiscal issues [3]. Group 2: Financial Projections - The Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimates that Clause 899 could generate $116.3 billion in revenue over the next decade, but it may ultimately reduce annual tax revenue by $12.9 billion in 2033 and 2034 [3]. Group 3: Political Uncertainty - There is uncertainty regarding the passage of Clause 899 in the Senate, with Republican leaders indicating a need to review its potential impacts before proceeding [4]. - Some key figures in the House hope that the clause will serve as a deterrent rather than being implemented, indicating a lack of consensus on its actual deployment [4].