矿端供应仍然偏紧 沪锡大幅反弹【6月4日SHFE市场收盘评论】

Core Viewpoint - Tin prices have rebounded due to market corrections after a significant decline, despite ongoing supply constraints and uncertain recovery from Myanmar's tin mines [1][2] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - Tin prices rose by 3.14%, closing at 257,940 yuan/ton, influenced by expectations of supply recovery from Myanmar, although these expectations remain unconfirmed [1] - Domestic supply of tin concentrate processing fees (TC) remains at historical lows, nearing smelter cost lines, which severely squeezes profit margins [1] - In May, China's refined tin production decreased by 2.37% month-on-month and 11.24% year-on-year, indicating a tightening supply chain [1] Group 2: Production and Capacity - The overall operating rate of domestic smelters has slightly declined due to ongoing supply chain constraints, with some smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi planning maintenance shutdowns in June [1] - The tightening of tin concentrate and scrap supply continues to impose rigid constraints on production capacity [1] Group 3: Demand Trends - Demand remains stable, but future expectations are weak, with consumption growth in the tin end market driven by national policy support and product upgrades in the first four months of the year [1] - After a policy retreat in May, the photovoltaic market's consumption began to face pressure, while mid-year promotional activities are expected to boost demand in consumer electronics and new energy vehicles [1] - However, entering the traditional off-season in July and August, combined with high finished product inventories, may slow down the growth rate of tin terminal consumption [1] Group 4: Market Sentiment - Recent price declines have improved market sentiment for stocking up, although end customers maintain a cautious approach with general order situations [1] - Newhu Futures commented that while supply expectations have not yet materialized, the current situation remains tight, and low operating rates at smelters persist [2] - Domestic inventory has significantly decreased, while overseas stocks remain low, providing some short-term support for prices [2]