达利欧再度警告：美国债务逼近“死亡螺旋”，三年后或陷“危急状况”！

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, argues that while the immediate risk of a U.S. debt crisis is low, the long-term risk is significantly high, warning that the U.S. government debt situation is approaching a "death spiral" that could threaten the stability of the global economy [1][2]. Group 1: Debt Situation - The U.S. government is on an unsustainable path regarding its debt, with the debt-to-GDP ratio projected to rise from 104% in 2017 to 123% by 2024 [4]. - Dalio emphasizes that higher deficits will necessitate the Treasury to issue more bonds, which could lead to a classic "debt death spiral" where rising interest rates worsen credit risk, reducing demand for debt and further increasing rates [2][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The bond market has become increasingly volatile, with the 30-year Treasury yield reaching its highest level in 2023, driven by investor concerns over rising risks associated with U.S. government loans [1][5]. - Barclays analysts note that long-term bond yields are nearing their highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis, indicating that the market is adjusting to the implications of new tax legislation and rising deficits [5]. Group 3: Political Landscape - Dalio criticizes both Democratic and Republican parties for their inability to cooperate on addressing the debt issue, likening the situation to a ship heading towards rocks without a consensus on how to change course [5].