6月以贵金属大涨开局，如何看市场异动下的金属价格逻辑？

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold prices surged by 2.8%, reaching a three-week high, marking the largest single-day increase in four weeks, driven by a weaker dollar and geopolitical risks [1] - Silver experienced a significant rise of over 5%, surpassing $34 per ounce, achieving its largest single-day gain since October of the previous year [1] - Year-to-date, gold has increased by over 25%, maintaining its appeal as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty, despite a decline in attractiveness since reaching a record high of over $3,500 per ounce in April [3] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver's performance has lagged behind gold due to its weaker safe-haven properties, with prices more influenced by industrial demand [6] - Analysts predict silver prices could reach $40 per ounce by year-end, indicating a potential upside of about 20% from current levels, contingent on economic recovery and industrial demand [6] - Short-term silver price movements may follow gold, especially if geopolitical tensions escalate, but significant gains are limited without a recovery in industrial demand or supply constraints [6] Group 3: Base Metals and Tariffs - Following President Trump's announcement to double tariffs on aluminum and steel, futures prices for these metals surged, with aluminum prices rising by 54% to the highest level since 2013 [7] - Steel futures also saw an increase of over 8%, indicating potential cost pressures on U.S. manufacturing due to higher tariffs [7] - Trump's tariff policy aims to boost domestic steel and aluminum producers, leading to a rise in stock prices for these companies, while construction firms warn of increased costs for essential materials [9] Group 4: Copper Market Reaction - Copper prices have also risen significantly as traders speculate on potential high tariffs, reaching near two-month highs [9] - The market is closely monitoring the implementation of Trump's tariff policies, with skepticism about their long-term sustainability [9]