大通小兑：中国电商行业趋势观察（三）

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the live e-commerce sector in China is experiencing significant growth, with a GMV of 1.98 trillion yuan in the first nine months of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 60.6% [1] - The live e-commerce accounted for 18.3% of the total online retail sales of 10.8 trillion yuan and 21.9% of the physical online retail sales of 904.35 billion yuan [1] - The growth rate of live e-commerce GMV is expected to be around 35-40% for the year, driven by emerging channels such as short video feeds, shelves, and search, rather than solely by live streaming [1][5] Group 2 - Kuaishou's GMV for the first half of 2023 was 490.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 33.8%, and the GMV from live streaming is projected to grow at a rate of 15-20% for the year [3][5] - The growth of live e-commerce is anticipated to normalize, with the live streaming channel's growth rate expected to decline to around 10% as platforms shift focus to brand self-broadcasting [5][6] - The broader live e-commerce market, including shelf models, is expected to increase its market share to 30% over the next 3-5 years, with a potential market size of approximately 7 trillion yuan [5][6] Group 3 - The live e-commerce model is characterized by high operational costs, making it less favorable for small and medium-sized businesses, while the shelf model is seen as more accommodating for these merchants [7] - Instant retail, although not included in physical online retail statistics, is identified as a significant growth market for the next seven years [7]