每日期货全景复盘6.4：焦煤主力暴力反弹，后市能否继续看多？

Group 1 - The futures market shows a bullish sentiment with 51 contracts rising and 22 contracts falling, indicating increased trading activity in upward-moving commodities [2] - The top gainers include coking coal (up 7.19%), shipping index (up 6.86%), and coke (up 5.72%), significantly influenced by supply and demand factors [5] - The largest inflows of capital were seen in copper (1.11 billion), silver (348 million), and coking coal (295 million), suggesting strong interest from major funds [7] Group 2 - The largest outflows were recorded in gold (-2.981 billion), CSI 300 (-1.909 billion), and CSI 1000 (-1.796 billion), indicating a notable withdrawal of funds from these commodities [8] - Significant increases in open interest were observed in fiberboard (up 64.48%), rubber board (up 19.57%), and copper (up 7.11%), suggesting new capital inflow and high trading enthusiasm [10] - Notable decreases in open interest were seen in short fiber (-14.69%), stainless steel (-13.12%), and cotton yarn (-12.35%), indicating potential withdrawal of major funds [10] Group 3 - Fujairah's refined oil inventory dropped by 13% to a five-month low, with middle distillate stocks decreasing by 35%, highlighting a tightening supply situation [11] - Argentina's soybean sales reached 1.0029 million tons, with cumulative sales for the 2024/25 season at 17.8765 million tons, reflecting strong domestic and export demand [12] - The pig-to-grain price ratio increased by 0.32% to 6.31, indicating a slight improvement in the profitability of pig farming [13] Group 4 - Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to rise to 2.01 million tons in May, a 7.74% increase from April, due to moderate production recovery despite strong export demand [15] - Mongolia's ETT company saw all 32,000 tons of coking coal go unsold in an online auction, reflecting weak demand and high inventory levels [16] - Steel inventory in 21 cities decreased by 39,000 tons to 794,000 tons, a 4.7% drop, indicating a tightening market despite long-term demand challenges [17] Group 5 - The Canadian central bank is expected to announce a rate decision, with a current policy rate of 2.75%, and market speculation on potential rate cuts in July [18] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's Beige Book will provide insights into economic conditions, with expectations of a moderate expansion and potential easing of inflationary pressures [19] Group 6 - The shipping index for the European route rose by 6.86%, driven by announcements of rate increases by shipping companies, indicating a positive market sentiment [22] - Coking coal prices increased by 7.19% due to supply constraints from reduced production in Shanxi, although high inventory levels may dampen market sentiment [25] - The soda ash contract rose by 3.55%, but the overall supply-demand balance remains loose, suggesting continued price weakness in the medium term [26]