经济预期再下行，贸易摩擦难解局，全球合作刻不容缓

Core Viewpoint - The OECD has downgraded its global economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 2.9%, indicating a weakening growth momentum and increasing risks in the global economy [1][10]. Group 1: Trade Barriers and Economic Policies - Trade barriers and economic policy uncertainty are identified as primary reasons for the global economic slowdown, with increased tariffs and trade restrictions disrupting supply chains and diminishing business and consumer confidence [3][4]. - The report highlights a notable slowdown in growth among North American economies, particularly the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, due to trade tensions impacting the largest economies [3][4]. - The U.S. inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 3.2% and 2.8%, respectively, indicating persistent inflationary pressures that could lead to continued tight monetary policies by the Federal Reserve [3][4]. Group 2: Impact of Protectionism - The rise of protectionism and trade barriers is harming global supply chain efficiency, increasing business costs, and ultimately affecting consumer prices, leading to constrained economic vitality and reduced global trade and investment flows [4][6]. - The fragmentation of trade is undermining the stability of the multilateral trading system, with historical evidence suggesting that rising protectionism hampers economic growth and leads to a "zero-sum game" scenario [6][7]. Group 3: Call for Cooperation - OECD Chief Economist Pereira emphasizes the necessity for countries to engage in sincere negotiations to avoid further trade fragmentation, advocating for multilateral cooperation and trade liberalization as essential for sustainable global economic growth [9][10]. - The report warns that the ongoing trade barriers could exacerbate international tensions and complicate global political dynamics, highlighting the need for stable and rule-based economic development rather than short-term protective measures [7][10].