Apple and Samsung smartphone growth to take hit from tariff uncertainty: Counterpoint Research

Core Viewpoint - Counterpoint Research has significantly reduced its global smartphone shipment growth forecast for 2025 due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies, now projecting a growth of 1.9% year-on-year, down from 4.2% previously [1][2]. Group 1: Apple and Samsung Shipment Forecasts - Apple's shipment growth is now expected to be 2.5% year-on-year in 2025, a decrease from the earlier forecast of 4% [2]. - Samsung's shipments are anticipated to experience no growth in 2025, a revision from the previously projected 1.7% increase [2]. - The revisions are attributed not only to tariff uncertainties but also to weakened demand in North America, Europe, and parts of Asia [3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Apple’s Shipment Growth - The downgraded shipment growth for Apple is primarily driven by the iPhone 16 series and a trend of emerging market customers purchasing more expensive phones [3]. - Apple has increased its shipments to the U.S. from India, where it has been boosting production of its iPhones, in response to tariff concerns [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competitors - Huawei is highlighted as a positive outlier, with an expected shipment growth of 11% year-on-year in 2025, benefiting from easing sourcing bottlenecks and a rebound in sales in China [5][6]. - The Chinese tech giant's recovery is attributed to advancements in semiconductor technology for its devices, which have revitalized its market position [6].