美国5月ADP就业人数继续大幅恶化

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a significant decline in the ADP employment figures for May, dropping from a previous value of 60,000 to 37,000, indicating signs of contraction in the U.S. job market [2] - If the upcoming non-farm payroll data reflects similar negative trends as the ADP figures, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve initiating a rate cut in the upcoming June meeting will increase substantially [2] - The Federal Reserve's previous cautious stance on monetary policy was largely based on the strength of the U.S. job market; any signs of weakening could prompt a reassessment of this stance [2] Group 2 - The current federal funds rate remains high, which adversely affects U.S. corporate financing and debt interest burdens, potentially dragging the economy into a recession [2] - The U.S. economy has already shown a negative growth of 0.2% in the first quarter, with the outlook for the second quarter appearing bleak [2] - Economic policies from President Trump, particularly tariff policies, have cast significant uncertainty over the U.S. economic outlook, complicating future projections [2]