楼市已经触底，明年会回暖吗？国家重磅定调，房价走势清晰

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is experiencing significant fluctuations, with a notable decline in new home sales and second-hand home prices in 2024, but signs of recovery are emerging in 2025 [1][3][4] Market Performance - In 2024, the national new residential sales area decreased by 12.9%, and second-hand home prices fell across all major cities, with Xiamen seeing a drop of 13.1% [1] - By April 2025, 22 out of 70 major cities reported a month-on-month increase in new home prices, and the transaction volume of second-hand homes in core areas like Beijing and Shanghai surged by 30% year-on-year [3] Policy Changes - The central government is actively promoting the stabilization of the real estate market, with measures such as reducing down payment ratios to 15% and lowering mortgage rates to just above 3% [3] - A significant investment plan for 2025 includes the addition of 1 million urban village renovation projects and the conversion of existing housing stock into affordable housing [3] Market Segmentation - Major cities and strong second-tier cities are stabilizing due to economic vitality and population inflow, while third and fourth-tier cities are struggling with significant declines in land sale revenues and high inventory levels [4][5] - In June 2025, the average new home price in Zhengzhou was 13,404 yuan per square meter, with core area properties showing strong sales, while suburban areas continued to see price declines of 3%-8% [3][4] Investment Opportunities - The shift in policy to classify real estate as "mass consumption" is expected to stimulate demand, particularly for larger homes with improved standards [5] - Financial innovations such as REITs for affordable housing and commercial properties are providing new funding avenues for developers, potentially stabilizing returns for investors [5] Future Outlook - Predictions indicate that core city home prices may rise by 3%-5% with transaction volumes increasing by 15%, while third and fourth-tier cities may continue to see price declines of 3%-8% [6] - The overall sentiment suggests that the real estate market is nearing a bottom, with a high probability of recovery in the coming year [5][6]