Core Viewpoint - The recent ADP employment report for May revealed only 37,000 new jobs added in the private sector, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000, indicating a slowdown in the labor market and raising concerns about the economic outlook and Federal Reserve monetary policy [1][2] Economic Indicators - The ADP report is considered a leading indicator for the upcoming non-farm payroll data, which is expected to show 130,000 new jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.2% [2] - Following the ADP report, the dollar index dropped approximately 20 basis points, reaching a low of 98.9783, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 0.58% to 4.421%, reflecting increased investor concerns about economic growth [1] Market Reactions - The gold price surged by $26 to a high of $3384.52 per ounce after the ADP report, highlighting a rise in safe-haven demand [1] - Market sentiment is divided, with some traders believing that upcoming unemployment claims and non-farm data will dictate market direction, while institutions focus on long-term trends [2] Future Outlook - If the non-farm payroll data is also disappointing, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut may increase, putting further pressure on the dollar and benefiting safe-haven assets like gold [2] - Conversely, if the non-farm data exceeds expectations, the market may reassess the resilience of the labor market, potentially leading to a rebound in the dollar [2] Technical Analysis - Gold has successfully established a bottom, with the lowest point at around $3344, and is expected to test resistance at $3392 [3][5] - Current trading strategies suggest a focus on buying on dips around $3345-$3350 and selling on rallies near $3385-$3390, with specific stop-loss and target levels outlined [6][5]
金晟富：6.5黄金走势符合预期！后市黄金行情分析参考
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-04 16:54