加拿大央行如期维持利率不变，未来可能会降息，需进一步观察特朗普关税影响

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Canada has decided to maintain the interest rate at 2.75% for the second consecutive time, aligning with market expectations, while indicating the possibility of future rate cuts if economic conditions remain weak and inflation stays moderate [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The Bank of Canada is cautious due to the uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policies, which are negatively impacting Canadian exports and increasing uncertainty for consumers and businesses [2][3] - The central bank is closely monitoring the potential chain reactions from tariffs, including impacts on exports, business investment, employment, and consumer spending [3] - Despite a stronger-than-expected economic performance in Q1, the central bank warns against excessive optimism, noting unexpected upward pressure on inflation with the core inflation rate rising to 3.2% in April, the highest in over a year [3][4] Group 2: Monetary Policy Decisions - The decision to hold rates steady is influenced by high uncertainty regarding U.S. tariffs, a soft Canadian economy, and unexpected inflation strength [4][5] - The Bank of Canada has shifted its approach by not providing specific GDP and inflation forecasts for the first time since the pandemic, indicating a more cautious stance [6] - The central bank's future policy will balance the downward pressure on inflation from economic weakness against the upward pressure from rising costs due to tariffs [5][6] Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts suggest that the Bank of Canada is adopting a wait-and-see approach amid unclear trade disputes, with expectations of continued economic weakness in the latter half of the year [7] - There is a consensus among economists that inflation may stabilize around the target level of 2%, but the potential for a 25 basis point rate cut in July remains if unemployment rises and inflation pressures ease [7][8] - The overall tone of the Bank of Canada's statement is perceived as dovish, indicating a higher likelihood of rate cuts later this year [8]