供应预期转好，菜油期价跳水

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates significant volatility in the canola oil market, with futures prices experiencing a sharp decline and a notable reduction in net long positions among major futures companies [1][3][4] - As of June 4, the top 20 futures companies held a total of 244,900 long positions and 229,800 short positions, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 1.07 and a net long position decrease of 11,500 contracts compared to the previous trading day [1] - The canola oil futures price dropped to a two-month low of 9,090 yuan/ton, closing down 2.56% [1] Group 2 - Recent news suggests a potential shift in China-Canada trade relations, alleviating concerns over tight future canola seed supply, which has been affecting the overall valuation of canola products [3] - The USDA supply and demand report for June indicates that global canola production is expected to return to normal levels for the 2025/2026 season, with optimistic yield forecasts due to favorable weather conditions in major Canadian growing areas [4] - Analysts suggest that if trade barriers between China and Canada are lifted, domestic supplies of canola oil and meal will improve significantly, potentially leading to further declines in canola oil prices in the short term [4] Group 3 - The current high inventory levels, combined with a seasonal decline in downstream consumption, contribute to a weak fundamental outlook for canola oil [4] - Market sentiment has already priced in the negative impacts of the recent price drop, with expectations that the 2509 contract may stabilize around 9,000 yuan/ton [4] - Traders are advised to monitor developments in China-Canada trade negotiations, as any substantial progress could significantly improve future canola seed supply expectations and provide support for canola oil prices [4]