市场预期美联储今年或将降息两次美国非制造业PMI近一年来首次陷入萎缩

Group 1: U.S. Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates weak economic growth, with only 3 out of 12 districts showing slight growth due to hiring slowdowns and concerns over tariffs affecting prices [1] - ADP reported that U.S. private sector employment increased by only 37,000 in May, significantly below the expected 110,000, marking the lowest increase in over two years [1] - The ISM reported that the U.S. non-manufacturing PMI fell below 50 for the first time in a year, indicating contraction, driven by declining new orders and rising prices due to higher import tariffs [1] Group 2: European Market Response - European markets reacted positively to the news of U.S. tariffs, with all three major indices rising, and the DAX index reaching a historical high [2] - The European Commission indicated that trade negotiations with the U.S. are progressing positively, which helped to soothe market sentiments [2] Group 3: Eurozone Economic Data - The Eurozone composite PMI for May was reported at 50.2, exceeding expectations, suggesting greater economic resilience amid U.S. tariff uncertainties [3] - However, the services sector in the Eurozone showed signs of weakness, with the PMI falling below 50, particularly in Germany, while France showed slight improvement [3] Group 4: Commodity Market Movements - International oil prices fell due to OPEC's decision to maintain production increases and OECD's downward revision of global growth forecasts, raising concerns about oversupply [4] - International gold prices saw a slight increase as the U.S. dollar index dropped below 99, with August gold futures closing at $1,399.20 per ounce [5]