李开国：内燃机和电动化结合是必然结果，混合动力要加大发展

Core Insights - The fifth International Forum on Automotive Power Systems was held in Shanghai, focusing on the diverse development paths of global automotive power systems [1] - Li Kaiguo, the supervisor of the China Automotive Engineering Society, presented a keynote report on "Development Path of Automotive Low-Carbon Technology," revealing that the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0" is expected to be officially released in September to October this year [1][5] Industry Development - The Chinese automotive industry is experiencing rapid growth, with production and sales expected to exceed 31 million vehicles in 2024, entering a period of stable growth [3] - The natural gas heavy truck segment is projected to grow significantly, reaching 178,000 units in 2024, aiding the recovery of the sluggish commercial vehicle sector [3] - The energy-saving and carbon reduction levels in the automotive industry are improving, with the average fuel consumption of new fuel vehicles decreasing by 17% compared to 2019 [3] Carbon Reduction Goals - The "Automotive Industry Green and Low-Carbon Development Roadmap 1.0" was released in 2023, setting clear carbon reduction targets for passenger and commercial vehicles by 2040 [4] - By 2040, average carbon emissions for passenger vehicles are to be reduced by 60%, while commercial vehicles aim for a 41% reduction [4] - The roadmap emphasizes the need for a combination of internal combustion engines and electrification to achieve energy consumption reductions [4][5] Technological Pathways - The "Technology Roadmap 3.0" aims to address key technological developments necessary for achieving energy-saving and carbon reduction goals, emphasizing hybridization, low-carbonization, and intelligence [5] - Hybrid vehicles are identified as a crucial technology path for energy savings, with sales expected to increase significantly in 2023-2024 [5] - The roadmap also highlights the importance of improving engine thermal efficiency and expanding the efficient operating range of engines [5][6] Future Energy Sources - The development of low-carbon and zero-carbon internal combustion engines is essential, with a focus on low-carbon fuels to mitigate emissions [6] - By 2040, low-carbon and zero-carbon engines are expected to achieve a maximum thermal efficiency of 52% and a power density of 35 kW/L [6] Vehicle Efficiency Requirements - The "Technology Roadmap 3.0" introduces energy-saving and technical requirements for various vehicle classes, including A0, A, B, C, and D levels [7] - Emphasis is placed on lightweight materials, low resistance, low friction, and intelligent energy management systems to enhance vehicle efficiency [7] - The integration of internal combustion engines and electric motors is seen as a necessary evolution, with hybrid technology being a key focus for passenger vehicles [7]