金荣中国：美国5月非农分析思路

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for May is expected to show an increase of 130,000 jobs, down from the previous increase of 177,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate forecasted to remain at 4.2% [1][4] Employment Data Analysis - The ADP employment data for May indicates that only 37,000 new jobs were created in the private sector, marking the smallest increase in over two years and significantly below the market expectation of 110,000 [3][4] - The weak ADP data has led to increased short-term bullish sentiment for gold, as it suggests a slowdown in job growth amid ongoing trade tensions [3][4] - Despite the weak job creation figures, wage growth remains strong, with no significant changes reported in May [3] Market Reactions and Predictions - Analysts predict that if the upcoming non-farm payroll data aligns with market expectations, it will confirm a cooling job market, reinforcing expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [12] - A non-farm payroll figure below 130,000 could trigger heightened expectations for earlier and more substantial rate cuts, potentially leading to a significant rise in gold prices [12] - Conversely, if the data exceeds expectations, particularly approaching 200,000, it may exert downward pressure on gold prices, failing to alter the prevailing economic slowdown outlook due to tariffs [12] Economic Context - The ongoing trade war has caused many companies to pause hiring, contributing to the slowdown in job growth [4][8] - The Federal Reserve is expected to remain patient in its monetary policy approach, observing the labor market for signs of genuine weakness before making any decisions on interest rate adjustments [7][8]